Failed Prediction: Early H.G. Wells and Submarines (1901)

“I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea.” — HG Wells, British novelist, in 1901.

I found this failed prediction particularly interesting as it originated from a veritable icon of futuristic vision.

In reviewing the history of submarines, or manned boats that operate while submerged, I created a simple chart that depicts the basic path of this technology from the 16th century onward:



The shaded area depicts the approximate lifespan of H.G. Wells within this overall timeframe. I think it's obvious that the submarine was a well-formed concept by Wells' time. Jules Verne had envisioned the capabilities of modern submarines when he wrote Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea in 1870.

So why was H.G. Wells unable to imagine the future success of submarines back in 1901? I think that it points to the same kind of bias that influences just about any human prediction. Even though submarines had a documented history of incremental (albeit slow) improvement, it was a field fraught with mortal risk up to that point in time. At the dawning of the 20th century, the reality of the many underwater disasters was likely a weighty testimony against the promise of future submarine technology.

It's interesting to note that H.G. Wells later went on to accurately predict the development of submarine launched ballistic missiles in The Shape of Things To Come (1933). This latter prediction would've been much easier to envision given the rapid improvement in this technology after the turn of the century and obvious success of submarines during World War I.

- Adolf

References:

http://listverse.com/history/top-30-failed-technology-predictions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H.g._wells

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_submarines

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shape_of_Things_to_Come

http://www.theinfidels.org/zunb-hgwells.htm

Successful Prediction: Jules Verne and Travel to the Moon (1865)

In 1865, Jules Verne wrote of travel to our moon in his science fantasy novel From the Earth to the Moon. Even though the method he envisioned for propulsion (cannon) was eventually proven to be impractical, other ideas that Verne articulated are quite remarkable in their similarity to the Apollo program:

- Each spacecraft held a crew of three
- Verne’s projectile was very close in size to the Apollo command module
- Both spacecraft were launched from Florida
- Verne’s plot also considered Texas as a launch location

The following chart depicts a rough timeline of significant developments in astronomy and space technology from the 16th century forward:


The shaded area depicts the approximate timeframe of Verne’s earthly presence within this timeline that spans half a millennium. It’s interesting to note that Verne’s conceptualization of human moon travel predated the entire era of modern space-related technology.

Was it incredible foresight, or just a lucky guess? More than likely, the answer falls somewhere in between. I developed a simple model of what may have been the significant factors that influenced the birth of Verne’s novel idea:


Please note that this diagram is highly speculative - being based on my limited knowledge of Jules Verne’s life and some assumptions. I have assumed that he had some knowledge of the history of astronomy and orbital mechanics providing a scientific “vector” for his imagination.

Based on the content and quantity of his other literary works, it seems obvious that Verne had a strong personal interest in this field and significant talent for articulating his imagination.

Given the fact that the vehicle for this prediction was a humorous fantasy novel, I suspect that his creative mind was free to roam without the constraints of contemporary scientific or scholarly scrutiny.

It is likely that this last factor also precluded the need to seriously consider the reality of social, political, or fiscal risks that would have heaped doubt on more formalized predictive thought.

- Adolf


Ideas or facts were used from the following sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_the_Earth_to_the_Moon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_exploration

Technology’s Promise: Dr. William Halal (2007)

Web 2.0 Tools: Tokbox

Tokbox (www.tokbox.com) is a web-based video mail & calling service that is provided free of charge. While there are many ways to communicate with voice & video over the Web, this particular application is worth taking a look at. Assuming that you already have a functional video camera & microphone, is should find it extremely easy to set up an account and begin using it. My top three reasons to try it:

1.) Provide at no cost with no advertising banners
2.) Intuitive interface, easily mastered functionality
3.) Can be used solely with a Web browser

A screenshot of the Inbox:



I did not test the optional client as I have no desire at the present time to load another voice/video client on my computer. The browser interface works just fine for now.

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Creative & Visionary Thinkers - TED.com

Innovation takes creativity & vision. For a large dose of both, I recommend visiting http://www.ted.com/index.php. The Technology, Entertainment, Design (TED) conference and website hosts a tremendous diversity of thought-provoking subject matter and perspectives. Here are a few examples:

Evangelist Billy Graham's perspective on faith, technology, and suffering:



Evolutionist Richard Dawkins encourages atheists:




Space travel entrepreneur Peter Diamandis on our next leap in space: