Sunday, September 21, 2008

Failed Prediction: Early H.G. Wells and Submarines (1901)

“I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea.” — HG Wells, British novelist, in 1901.

I found this failed prediction particularly interesting as it originated from a veritable icon of futuristic vision.

In reviewing the history of submarines, or manned boats that operate while submerged, I created a simple chart that depicts the basic path of this technology from the 16th century onward:



The shaded area depicts the approximate lifespan of H.G. Wells within this overall timeframe. I think it's obvious that the submarine was a well-formed concept by Wells' time. Jules Verne had envisioned the capabilities of modern submarines when he wrote Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea in 1870.

So why was H.G. Wells unable to imagine the future success of submarines back in 1901? I think that it points to the same kind of bias that influences just about any human prediction. Even though submarines had a documented history of incremental (albeit slow) improvement, it was a field fraught with mortal risk up to that point in time. At the dawning of the 20th century, the reality of the many underwater disasters was likely a weighty testimony against the promise of future submarine technology.

It's interesting to note that H.G. Wells later went on to accurately predict the development of submarine launched ballistic missiles in The Shape of Things To Come (1933). This latter prediction would've been much easier to envision given the rapid improvement in this technology after the turn of the century and obvious success of submarines during World War I.

- Adolf

References:

http://listverse.com/history/top-30-failed-technology-predictions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H.g._wells

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_submarines

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shape_of_Things_to_Come

http://www.theinfidels.org/zunb-hgwells.htm

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