Successful Prediction: Jules Verne and Travel to the Moon (1865)

In 1865, Jules Verne wrote of travel to our moon in his science fantasy novel From the Earth to the Moon. Even though the method he envisioned for propulsion (cannon) was eventually proven to be impractical, other ideas that Verne articulated are quite remarkable in their similarity to the Apollo program:

- Each spacecraft held a crew of three
- Verne’s projectile was very close in size to the Apollo command module
- Both spacecraft were launched from Florida
- Verne’s plot also considered Texas as a launch location

The following chart depicts a rough timeline of significant developments in astronomy and space technology from the 16th century forward:


The shaded area depicts the approximate timeframe of Verne’s earthly presence within this timeline that spans half a millennium. It’s interesting to note that Verne’s conceptualization of human moon travel predated the entire era of modern space-related technology.

Was it incredible foresight, or just a lucky guess? More than likely, the answer falls somewhere in between. I developed a simple model of what may have been the significant factors that influenced the birth of Verne’s novel idea:


Please note that this diagram is highly speculative - being based on my limited knowledge of Jules Verne’s life and some assumptions. I have assumed that he had some knowledge of the history of astronomy and orbital mechanics providing a scientific “vector” for his imagination.

Based on the content and quantity of his other literary works, it seems obvious that Verne had a strong personal interest in this field and significant talent for articulating his imagination.

Given the fact that the vehicle for this prediction was a humorous fantasy novel, I suspect that his creative mind was free to roam without the constraints of contemporary scientific or scholarly scrutiny.

It is likely that this last factor also precluded the need to seriously consider the reality of social, political, or fiscal risks that would have heaped doubt on more formalized predictive thought.

- Adolf


Ideas or facts were used from the following sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_the_Earth_to_the_Moon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_exploration

Technology’s Promise: Dr. William Halal (2007)